(Reuters) – In its latest survey, Argentina’s central bank reported that analysts have lowered their monthly and annual inflation estimates. The updated projection now puts the country’s full-year inflation rate at 120.0%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
October’s month-over-month inflation is expected to reach 3.0%, slightly down from the previous estimate of 3.4%. Analysts also anticipate a 2.9% increase in prices from October to November.
The poll additionally forecasts a 3.6% contraction in Argentina’s real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024, marking a slight improvement from the previous estimate. “The fall in GDP was likely concentrated in the first half of the year,” the report noted, with economic activity showing signs of recovery in the third quarter.
The central bank survey, conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 31, gathered insights from 43 analysts.
China’s Trade Surplus Nears Record Levels Amid Rising Export Growth
Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus is set to approach a historic high of nearly $1 trillion if the current trend continues, according to Bloomberg calculations. With a goods trade surplus of $785 billion for the first ten months of 2024—a record increase of 16% over the previous year—the surplus highlights China’s heavy reliance on exports as domestic demand remains sluggish. Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted, “The overall story is of an economy that is again growing off exports,” as China’s export volumes surged despite falling prices.
However, the rising trade imbalance has sparked pushback globally, with countries from South America to Europe raising tariff barriers on Chinese goods like steel and electric vehicles. Additionally, foreign companies are withdrawing capital from China, with foreign direct investment showing a potential annual net outflow for the first time since at least 1990.
In response, Beijing has promised more financial support to stabilize foreign trade, boost economic growth, and support employment, seeking to balance the widening trade surplus and address domestic economic challenges.
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