Russia’s deployment of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Thursday has escalated the Ukraine conflict to new heights, marking a pivotal and potentially perilous moment in its confrontation with the West. The use of a ballistic missile equipped with multiple warheads, or MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles), for offensive combat departs starkly from Cold War-era deterrence strategies.
Historically, ballistic missiles have served as the cornerstone of nuclear deterrence, underpinning the principle of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). This doctrine ensured that even in the event of a nuclear first strike, the surviving arsenal could deliver catastrophic retaliation, effectively discouraging any use of such weapons. These missiles were thus intended to prevent their deployment in anger, preserving a precarious peace.
Yet, the recent use of MIRVs in combat raises alarming questions about their role in modern warfare. As Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, noted, this represents the first documented instance of MIRVs being employed in combat. Designed for overwhelming destructive power, MIRVs can target multiple locations simultaneously, challenging even the most advanced air defense systems. Videos of Russia’s missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro revealed warheads striking at various angles, each requiring interception by an individual anti-missile system—a near-impossible task in real-time combat.
Eroding Deterrence and Increasing Risks
Analysts warn that MIRVs, instead of enhancing deterrence, might incentivize preemptive strikes. A study by Kristensen and his colleague Matt Korda highlights that land-based MIRVs are particularly vulnerable to being destroyed in a first strike due to their fixed positions. This creates a “use them or lose them” dilemma, where nations might feel pressured to act first in times of heightened tension to safeguard their arsenals.
Even though the warheads used in Thursday’s strike were non-nuclear, the deployment of such technology in conventional warfare amplifies global unease. While Russia provided advance notice to the United States about the missile launch, the move has nevertheless heightened fears across Europe. Questions now arise: has the doctrine of deterrence been fundamentally undermined?
A Growing MIRV Arsenal Worldwide
Russia and the United States are not alone in wielding MIRV capabilities. Nations like China, the United Kingdom, and France have long equipped their intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles with MIRV technology. Emerging players like Pakistan and India have also entered the arena. India’s recent successful test of its Agni-5 ICBM, capable of delivering multiple warheads across continents, underscores the expanding reach of this technology.
Unlike submarine-launched MIRVs, which are stealthier and harder to detect, land-based MIRVs, especially those housed in fixed silos, are more susceptible to preemptive strikes. This vulnerability could make them destabilizing factors in international crises.
Toward a Dangerous New Nuclear Arms Race
The proliferation of MIRVs reflects an alarming trend of escalating nuclear capabilities worldwide. Kristensen and Korda argue that the broad deployment of MIRV technology across more nations could dramatically reduce crisis stability. The expansion of MIRV arsenals introduces new uncertainties, as nations may prioritize rapid action over restraint during crises.
In this evolving landscape, the potential for catastrophic miscalculations grows. As more countries adopt and expand MIRV technology, the global security environment becomes increasingly fragile, moving the world further from the deterrence-based stability envisioned during the Cold War.
Russia’s recent actions serve as a wake-up call for renewed efforts in arms control and international diplomacy. Without significant measures to address the risks posed by MIRVs, the world faces a more unpredictable and dangerous nuclear future.
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