In the upcoming November elections, the distribution of electoral votes in several states isn’t anticipated to come as a surprise, with the winning presidential candidate likely to secure a considerable share. However, within the landscape of seven pivotal states, spanning from the arid Southwest to the Upper Midwest and circling back down to the South, the outcome remains shrouded in uncertainty. The 93 electoral votes up for grabs in these states are poised to determine the occupant of the White House come January, whether it be the incumbent President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.
What Exactly Constitutes a Swing State?
A swing state, as defined, plays a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of presidential elections, characterized by similar levels of support for candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties. While the lineup of swing states often remains consistent across presidential election cycles, various factors such as shifting demographics and voter turnout can blur the lines of traditionally red or blue states, turning them into shades of purple. Take Georgia, for instance, which transitioned into the swing state category following Biden’s unexpected victory in 2020 and the subsequent election triumph of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2022. Both Trump and Biden, having secured their party’s nominations, have strategically earmarked swing states as focal points in their campaigns. Their efforts are evident through visits and rallies, intensifying as the election day draws near.
Which States Are the Swing States for 2024?
Here are seven swing states meticulously scrutinized by U.S. News for their pivotal role in the upcoming 2024 election. Dive deeper into the significance of each state:
Arizona:
The Grand Canyon State witnessed a seismic shift from a resounding Trump victory in 2016 to a narrow Biden triumph in 2020, defying historical trends. Previously, a Republican candidate had secured victory in Arizona in every other presidential election this century. Arizona’s status as a battleground epitomizes its evolving demographics, with immigration emerging as a poignant issue, particularly resonant in the charged political atmosphere of 2024.
Georgia:
Another exemplar of the dynamic nature of swing states, Biden’s significant win in Georgia during 2020 marked the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had clinched victory since Bill Clinton in 1992. The pivotal role of black voter turnout and enthusiasm in Biden’s success underscores the potential influence of this voting bloc in the upcoming November elections.
Michigan:
The Great Lakes State has historically leaned Democratic in recent decades but has also frequently found itself at the epicenter of battleground status. Alongside Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan constituted a formidable “blue wall” for Biden in 2020. Nevertheless, Trump managed to secure victories in each of these states over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. Recent surveys highlight the economy as a paramount concern for Michigan voters, making the working-class demographic a critical focus for both contenders in the upcoming election.
Nevada:
Despite boasting the fewest electoral votes among the seven swing states, Nevada’s role in the presidential election cannot be overstated. Biden’s victory in 2020 marked the fourth consecutive win by Democratic candidates in the Silver State, although margins were relatively narrow in both 2020 and 2016. With a diverse population, with over 30% Hispanic, polling indicates that the economy takes precedence over immigration as a key electoral issue.
North Carolina:
Although categorized as “leaning Republican” by U.S. News analysis, North Carolina remains firmly ensconced within the realm of swing states. Trump’s slim victory margin of 1.3 percentage points in 2020 accentuates its significance. Biden recently concluded a swing state tour, with North Carolina as the final stop. Democrats are hopeful that North Carolina might emulate Georgia’s unexpected shift in 2024, potentially becoming a crucial gain for Biden if other battlegrounds sway towards Trump.
Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania proved instrumental in securing the “blue wall” and ultimately the presidency for Biden in 2020, as the state is his native land. However, Trump’s victory there in 2016 disrupted a streak of Democratic victories, with Biden narrowly securing the state by 1.2 percentage points four years ago. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes hold the highest count among the swing states, ranking it fifth overall in electoral significance.
Wisconsin:
Alphabetically the last of the “blue wall” states, Wisconsin historically stood as a reliably Democratic stronghold in the Rust Belt until Trump narrowly secured victory in 2016, solidifying its status as a battleground. Biden retaliated with his own narrow victory over Trump in 2020. The forthcoming visits of both 2024 candidates in April underline the significance of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes in the impending election, reflecting the state’s pivotal role in shaping the nation’s political landscape.