The U.S. government has announced plans to overhaul auto emissions standards, aiming for a significant shift in the automotive market. By 2032, electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to make up around two-thirds of all new car sales in the country.
According to Matthias Heck, an industry analyst at Moody’s, this target is achievable, but it will require substantial investment and effort. Without such regulatory goals, the U.S. market would likely not reach this level of EV adoption until after 2035. As it stands, the proposal remains in its early stages and could undergo changes before it’s finalized.
The coming decade will see rapid advancements in EV technology, including improvements in battery capacity, charging infrastructure, and vehicle prices. These changes, along with incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act, will help drive EV adoption. Chris Harto, a policy analyst at Consumer Reports, emphasized that EVs in 2032 will differ significantly from the models available today. As EVs become more affordable and accessible, they will likely attract a wider range of consumers, especially as battery technology improves, driving costs down.
One of the key developments is the increase in driving ranges and faster charging capabilities. According to Heck, next-generation EV batteries are expected to increase driving range by 30% and recharge 30% faster. With these improvements, along with better charging infrastructure, EVs will offer consumers an attractive alternative to traditional gas-powered vehicles.
By 2032, consumers will have a wider selection of EV models to choose from. Elizabeth Krear, vice president of JD Power’s electric vehicle practice, noted that today’s EV market only offers alternatives to around 40% of gas vehicle models. However, by 2026, EV options will likely expand to cover 75% of the vehicles Americans are shopping for, with market share expected to triple to 27%. In states like California, where EV adoption is already high, the market share of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles is anticipated to reach two-thirds by 2032. California’s strict regulations, including a ban on the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035, will play a significant role in accelerating the nationwide transition.
Despite these optimistic projections, the goal of reaching two-thirds EV market share by 2032 is not guaranteed. Bloomberg NEF’s Corey Cantor believes that it’s achievable but will depend on various factors, including market readiness and regulatory support. He also pointed out that California’s influence on the auto market could potentially bring the national transition forward by a year.
Automakers’ increasing commitment to the EV market will be another key factor in achieving the government’s goals. As consumers remain loyal to particular brands, the entry of companies like Toyota, Honda, and General Motors into the EV market will be critical. While Toyota currently offers just one EV model in the U.S., the company plans to expand its electric vehicle lineup. Honda, which has not yet released an EV, will begin producing electric vehicles next year. General Motors, which has committed to offering only electric passenger vehicles by 2035, will soon roll out a variety of EVs at different price points, providing a major test of the U.S. market’s readiness for widespread EV adoption.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, representing most major automakers, has expressed concerns about the ambitious goals. The group has urged government agencies to collaborate closely with the auto industry to ensure a smooth transition to electric vehicles. The process will require coordinated efforts and the right conditions for success.
Ultimately, the economic pressure to switch to electric vehicles will become undeniable for automakers, especially as consumer demand for EVs rises. Once the market reaches a critical mass of EV adoption, continuing to produce internal combustion vehicles will no longer be economically viable for many automakers. This shift will mark the beginning of the next chapter in the U.S. auto industry.