The United States is in the final stage of the 2024 presidential elections as the republican nominee Donald J. Trump and democratic Kamala Harris have completed their rounds for interviews and rallies.
As this is an election, many Americans believe in relying on consequences that who is going to win this race.
Who is going to be the winner of the presidential election in, the U.S.?
According to ABC News Project 538, Harris is leading with polls at 48.5% to Trump’s 45.9%, if compared to Harris’s 48.1% to Trump’s 45.5% four weeks ago.
Four weeks ago, 270 towin’ shows Harris leads national polls by 2.7% over Trump compared to Harris by 0.9%.
However, clear polling shows the betting odds are in Harris’s favor with a speed of plus 2.0 over Trump compared to Harris’s favor plus 1.4, data from four weeks ago.
Polymarket is a crypto trading platform that is showing odds by the betting public, that says in favor of Trump over Harris by 5.9% points compared to Trump over Harris by 5.9% points, four weeks ago.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
According to The Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866. However, polling accuracy is more complex, as different pollsters surveying various groups can result in higher margins of error. Pew Research reports that public trust in opinion polls has declined, especially after the errors seen in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In both elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
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