In 2019, Duewight Garcia overstayed his tourist visa to the United States, citing safety concerns due to his student activism and gang violence in Honduras. Like many undocumented immigrants, Garcia, now in his mid-30s, has found work in the construction industry, specifically in sheetrock and framing in the New York City area. “We do the work no one else wants to do,” he shared in a translated interview. However, with mass deportations on the horizon, Garcia and millions like him face uncertainty, raising concerns about the broader implications for the housing market.
Undocumented Workers and the Construction Industry
Undocumented immigrants play a significant role in the U.S. construction sector, with the National Immigration Forum estimating that nearly a quarter of the workforce is undocumented. In some states, such as California, Texas, and New York, immigrants make up over 40% of construction workers. Their contributions have helped bridge the gap in a sector already struggling with labor shortages. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 282,000 construction job vacancies as of September, underscoring the industry’s reliance on immigrant labor.
Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), emphasized the critical role of immigrant labor in maintaining affordable housing. “Anything that impacts the labor supply, particularly immigrant labor, raises concerns about our ability to meet housing demands,” Tobin noted. The NAHB estimates that the U.S. needs to build 1.5 million homes to address rising demand, making a steady labor force essential.
Potential Market Shocks from Mass Deportations
President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal to deport millions of undocumented immigrants has sparked fears of disruptions in the housing market. Immigrant labor not only meets construction demands but also contributes to overall housing availability. Removing a significant portion of this workforce could delay projects, reduce housing supply, and drive up costs.
Riordan Frost, a senior research analyst at Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, noted that immigrants, whether documented or not, impact housing demand by adding to household growth. However, their most profound influence lies in expanding the housing supply. “Immigrant labor has filled critical gaps in the construction industry, which native-born workers have not stepped into at the same rate,” Frost explained.
In some areas, where immigrants constitute over half of the construction workforce, such as California and Texas, a reduction in labor could lead to severe market shocks. Frost warned, “If you’re reducing a workforce by half in some states, it could significantly disrupt the housing market.”
Challenges in Replacing Immigrant Labor
Some argue that deportations could encourage more American-born workers to enter the construction industry, but experts highlight significant barriers. The construction sector faces an aging workforce and a decline in vocational training programs. Even with improved training opportunities, many young Americans prefer less physically demanding jobs.
Stan Marek, CEO of MAREK Construction in Houston, stated, “Without immigrant labor, the workforce shortage will worsen. Vocational training isn’t enough to attract new workers to the trades at the scale we need.” Marek also criticized the feasibility of Trump’s mass deportation plan, noting, “Deporting people would decimate the residential housing business.”
Broader Economic Implications
While proponents of mass deportations argue that undocumented immigrants take jobs from American workers, recent studies suggest otherwise. Undocumented labor often complements domestic labor by filling roles that native-born workers are less likely to take on. A March study by housing economists found that deporting undocumented workers could result in a net job loss for U.S.-born workers, particularly in higher-skilled construction roles.
Jennie Murray, CEO of the National Immigration Forum, called mass deportation policies “short-sighted,” highlighting the economic interdependence of immigration and housing. “The economy and immigration are deeply connected,” Murray said.
The American Dream and the Immigrant Workforce
For workers like Garcia, the American dream means contributing to the economy through hard work, even amid uncertain circumstances. “If they deport a million workers, construction will slow, and housing prices will rise,” Garcia said. “We’re helping keep the economy balanced. That’s why we get up every morning to work hard.”
As the debate over immigration policy continues, the potential ripple effects of mass deportations on the housing market serve as a reminder of the complex ways immigrants shape the U.S. economy. Ensuring that policies address labor needs without compromising economic stability will be crucial in the years ahead.
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