Recent polling, including new surveys released on Tuesday, indicates that the 2024 election may bring about an unprecedented event in American history: the House of Representatives could flip from Republican to Democratic control, while the Senate could shift from Democratic to Republican control. If this occurs, it would mark the first time in over 230 years that the two chambers of Congress have changed partisan control in opposite directions during the same election cycle.
This potential historic shift stems from the vastly different battleground maps for the closely divided House and Senate. In the House, all 435 seats are up for grabs, and Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to secure a majority. New York alone could provide those seats, as the GOP won four districts by narrow margins in 2022, all of which were districts Joe Biden carried under current lines. These include New York’s 4th District on Long Island, the 17th and 19th districts in the Hudson Valley, and the 22nd District in Central New York, which has since been redrawn to favor Democrats.
The Senate presents a different challenge. Only about a third of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for election each cycle, and this year, many seats held by Democrats or those who caucus with them are in red-leaning states. For Republicans, the math is straightforward: they need a net gain of either one seat (if the incoming vice president is Republican) or two seats (if the vice president is a Democrat) to flip the Senate.
Republicans are expected to have strong chances of flipping seats in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester faces a tough race, and West Virginia, where independent Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. Additionally, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, a state Trump won twice, is vulnerable, giving Republicans another pickup opportunity. The GOP also has competitive races in states Trump carried in 2016, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The increasing trend of straight-ticket voting makes these contests even more competitive. In recent election cycles, only a small percentage of voters have split their ballots between presidential and down-ballot races. In 2020, just one state, Maine, voted differently for president and Senate. The same trend applies to the House, where only 4% of districts voted one way for president and another for their House representative in 2020.
In key battlegrounds like New York, polling shows Democrats gaining ground. For example, in the 4th District, Democratic challenger Laura Gillen is leading Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito by 12 points, with Kamala Harris also polling ahead in the district. Forecasts suggest Democrats could win all four of the contested New York districts. Meanwhile, California offers five Republican-held House seats that are considered toss-ups, further increasing the likelihood of a Democratic majority in the House.
While Republicans could still retain control of the House and unexpected developments could alter the Senate race, the possibility of this historic partisan flip is very real. Both parties may soon experience a congressional shake-up that could dramatically shift the balance of power in Washington.
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