On November 5, Donald Trump made significant inroads across the United States, even in the deep-blue state of California. While Vice President Kamala Harris, unsurprisingly, secured about 60% of the vote in the Golden State, Trump managed to flip eight counties that had supported Joe Biden in 2020.
Though California’s notoriously slow election counting process means the results may change—over 1 million ballots are still being processed—Trump has, for now, won eight counties: Butte, Merced, Stanislaus, Fresno, San Joaquin, Inyo, San Bernardino, and Riverside. These counties, located in California’s interior, are typically more rural and conservative than the progressive coastal cities, with many of them historically split between the two parties. Despite being home to nearly 7 million people, Trump’s gains in these regions reflect a broader shift that political analysts are still trying to understand, with the economy and waning voter enthusiasm playing key roles.
Polling by the Associated Press and the University of Chicago suggests California voters were most concerned about the economy, ahead of issues like immigration, climate change, and abortion. Mark Baldassare, director of the Public Policy Institute of California, noted that dissatisfaction with the economy is a trend nationwide, with voters expressing frustration with the current administration.
Trump’s appeal extended beyond traditional Republican strongholds. While most Latino voters in California supported Harris, Trump managed to increase his vote share in several Latino-majority counties, such as Fresno and Riverside. According to Clarissa Martínez de Castro of UnidosUS, economic discontent was a driving factor in Trump’s success, though she emphasized that the majority of Latino voters still backed Harris.
Another key element was voter turnout. Baldassare observed a decrease in overall turnout compared to 2020, especially among occasional voters, many of whom were likely disillusioned by the political climate. Low-propensity voters who did turn out were likely motivated by economic concerns, contributing to Trump’s success.
Experts also point to a shift in California’s political landscape, suggesting some voters believe the state has veered too far left. This sentiment, combined with Trump’s gains, was reflected in the passage of measures for harsher penalties on theft and drug offenses, the rejection of a ban on forced labor in prisons, and the defeat of progressive district attorneys in Los Angeles and Oakland. Lisa Pruitt, a rural law expert at UC Davis, believes many Californians are seeking a “correction” in the state’s policies, particularly on crime and law enforcement.
Moreover, issues like trans rights have also become divisive, with a law banning school districts from requiring parental notification if a child changes gender identity drawing backlash from conservatives. Pruitt argues this is part of a broader retreat from progressive policies in California, often seen as a bellwether for liberal politics.
James Adams, a political science professor at UC Davis, draws parallels between Trump’s success and a wider global trend: populist candidates gaining support while governing parties in Western democracies, from Portugal to Finland to Germany, are losing favor. According to Adams, Trump’s message—that the political system is rigged and serves the interests of the wealthy while ignoring ordinary people—resonates deeply with disillusioned voters. The economic struggles faced by many, particularly in the wake of high inflation, have eroded confidence in those in power.
In Butte County, a region evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, Trump managed to gain ground, though in Chico, the largest city, voters continued to back Harris at similar rates to 2020. Progressive figures like Addison Winslow, a member of Chico’s city council, attribute Trump’s success to the Democratic Party’s failure to address the economic realities of voters. He believes that despite some positive economic indicators touted by Democrats, the personal experiences of many voters tell a different story.
In short, Trump’s unexpected gains in California underscore a shift driven largely by economic dissatisfaction and a sense that voters are yearning for change, not just in the state but across the nation.
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